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Skin cancer risks avoided by the Montreal Protocol - Worldwide modeling integrating coupled climate-chemistry models with a risk model for UV

Dijk van, Arjan and Slaper, Harry and Outer den, Peter and Morgenstern, Olaf and Braesicke, Peter and Pyle, John and Garny, Hella and Stenke, Andrea and Dameris, Martin and Kazantzidis, Andreas and Tourpali, Kleareti and Bais, Alkiviadis (2013) Skin cancer risks avoided by the Montreal Protocol - Worldwide modeling integrating coupled climate-chemistry models with a risk model for UV. Photochemistry and Photobiology (89), pp. 234-246. Wiley. DOI: 10.1111/j.1751-1097.2012.01223.x ISSN 0031-8655

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Official URL: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1751-1097.2012.01223.x/pdf

Abstract

The assessment model for ultraviolet radiation and risk “AMOUR” is applied to output from two chemistry-climate models (CCMs). Results from the UK Chemistry and Aerosols CCM are used to quantify the worldwide skin cancer risk avoided by the Montreal Protocol and its amendments: by the year 2030, two million cases of skin cancer have been prevented yearly, which is 14% fewer skin cancer cases per year. In the “World Avoided,” excess skin cancer incidence will continue to grow dramatically after 2030. Results from the CCM E39C-A are used to estimate skin cancer risk that had already been inevitably committed once ozone depletion was recognized: excess incidence will peak mid 21st century and then recover or even super-recover at the end of the century. When compared with a “No Depletion” scenario, with ozone undepleted and cloud characteristics as in the 1960s throughout, excess incidence (extra yearly cases skin cancer per million people) of the “Full Compliance with Montreal Protocol” scenario is in the ranges: New Zealand: 100–150, Congo: −10–0, Patagonia: 20–50, Western Europe: 30–40, China: 90–120, South-West USA: 80–110, Mediterranean: 90–100 and North-East Australia: 170–200. This is up to 4% of total local incidence in the Full Compliance scenario in the peak year

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/80678/
Document Type:Article
Title:Skin cancer risks avoided by the Montreal Protocol - Worldwide modeling integrating coupled climate-chemistry models with a risk model for UV
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthors ORCID iD
Dijk van, ArjanRIVM, NLUNSPECIFIED
Slaper, HarryRIVM, NLUNSPECIFIED
Outer den, PeterRIVM, NLUNSPECIFIED
Morgenstern, OlafNIWA, NZUNSPECIFIED
Braesicke, PeterNCAS, UKUNSPECIFIED
Pyle, JohnNCAS, UKUNSPECIFIED
Garny, HellaDLR-IPAUNSPECIFIED
Stenke, AndreaETH-Z, CHUNSPECIFIED
Dameris, MartinDLR-IPAUNSPECIFIED
Kazantzidis, AndreasLAP, GRUNSPECIFIED
Tourpali, KlearetiAUTH, GRUNSPECIFIED
Bais, AlkiviadisAUTH, GRUNSPECIFIED
Date:January 2013
Journal or Publication Title:Photochemistry and Photobiology
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:No
In SCOPUS:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
DOI :10.1111/j.1751-1097.2012.01223.x
Page Range:pp. 234-246
Publisher:Wiley
ISSN:0031-8655
Status:Published
Keywords:numerical modelling, stratosphere, climate-chemistry interaction, future projection
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Space
HGF - Program Themes:Earth Observation
DLR - Research area:Raumfahrt
DLR - Program:R EO - Erdbeobachtung
DLR - Research theme (Project):R - Vorhaben Atmosphären- und Klimaforschung
Location: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Atmospheric Physics > Atmospheric Dynamics
Deposited By: Dameris, Prof. Dr. rer. nat. Martin
Deposited On:11 Feb 2013 17:17
Last Modified:06 Sep 2019 15:16

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