Forecast of Total Electron Content over Europe for disturbed ionospheric Conditions

Abstract

A general picture of the occurrence of ionospheric storms as function of local time, season and location is known from numerous studies over the past 50 years. Nevertheless, it is not yet possible to say how the ionosphere will actually respond to a given space weather event because the measurements of the onset time, location of maximum perturbation, amplitude and type of storm (positive or negative) deviate much from the climatology. However, statistical analyses of numerous storm events observed in the Total Electron Content (TEC) since 1995 enable to estimate and predict a most probable upcoming perturbed TEC over Europe based on forecasts of geomagnetic activity. A first approach will be presented here. The forecast of perturbed TEC is part of the Forecast System Ionosphere build under the umbrella of the FP7 project AFFECTS∗ (Advanced Forecast For Ensuring Communication Through Space). It aims to help users mitigating the impact on communication systems