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Considering Uncertainties in Research by Probabilistic Modeling

Eck, Markus and Feldhoff, Jan Fabian and Kretschmann, David and Wittmann, Michael and Schenk, Heiko (2012) Considering Uncertainties in Research by Probabilistic Modeling. ASME 2012 6th International Conference on Energy Sustainability, 23.-26. Juli 2012, San Diego, CA, USA.

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Abstract

Technical and economical evaluation of solar thermal power plants constantly gains more importance for industry and research. The reliability of the results highly depends on the assumptions made for the applied parameters. Reducing a power plant system to one single, deterministic number for evaluation, like the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), might end in misleading results. Probabilistic approaches can help to better evaluate systems [1] and scenarios [2]. While industry looks for safety in investment and profitability, research is predominantly interested in the evaluation of concepts and the identification of promising new approaches. Especially for research, dealing with higher and hardly quantifiable uncertainties, it is desirable to get a detailed view of the system and its main influences. However, to get there, also a good knowledge on the stochastic interrelations and its interpretation is required. Therefore, this paper mainly assesses the influences of basic stochastic assumptions and suggests a methodology to consider suitable stochastic input, especially for parameters of systems still under research. As examples, the comparison between a parabolic trough plant with synthetic oil and direct steam generation is used.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/77988/
Document Type:Conference or Workshop Item (Speech)
Title:Considering Uncertainties in Research by Probabilistic Modeling
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthors ORCID iD
Eck, MarkusDLR-TTUNSPECIFIED
Feldhoff, Jan FabianJan.Feldhoff (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-1636-5429
Kretschmann, DavidDLR-SFUNSPECIFIED
Wittmann, MichaelDLR-SFUNSPECIFIED
Schenk, HeikoDLR-SFUNSPECIFIED
Date:2012
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:No
Gold Open Access:No
In SCOPUS:No
In ISI Web of Science:No
Status:Published
Keywords:Economic assessment, probabilistic modeling, DSG, synthetic oil, parabolic trough, electricity cost, system comparison, solar thermal power plant, thermal energy storage, PCM storage
Event Title:ASME 2012 6th International Conference on Energy Sustainability
Event Location:San Diego, CA, USA
Event Type:international Conference
Event Dates:23.-26. Juli 2012
Organizer:ASME
HGF - Research field:Energy
HGF - Program:Renewable Energies
HGF - Program Themes:E SF - Solar research (old)
DLR - Research area:Energy
DLR - Program:E SF - Solar research
DLR - Research theme (Project):E - Applikationsentwicklung (old)
Location: Stuttgart
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Solar Research > Linienfokussierende Systeme
Deposited By: Feldhoff, Dr.-Ing. Jan Fabian
Deposited On:06 Dec 2012 17:45
Last Modified:11 Jan 2018 13:49

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