Weather nowcasting and short term forecasting

Abstract

This article is about present weather and its immediate development, on the challenge of how to observe it, and how to forecast it in the short term. It touches on the problems meteorologists have in delivering reliable estimates of, e.g., which path a thunderstorm will take during its track, whether it will bring hail or just rain, or when there will be freezing conditions at an airport with subsequent problems for air traffic on ground, arrival and departure. Some illustrative examples are given, showing how the problems are tackled and how integrated forecasting systems, in particular, can be successful in meeting the challenge.