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Global-Mean Temperature Change from Shipping toward 2050: Improved Representation of the Indirect Aerosol Effect in Simple Climate Models

Tronstad Lund, Marianne and Eyring, Veronika and Fuglestvedt, Jan and Hendricks, Johannes and Lauer, Axel and Lee, David and Righi, Mattia (2012) Global-Mean Temperature Change from Shipping toward 2050: Improved Representation of the Indirect Aerosol Effect in Simple Climate Models. Environmental Science & Technology, 46, pp. 8868-8877. American Chemical society (ACS).

Full text not available from this repository.

Official URL: http://pubs.acs.org/doi/pdf/10.1021/es301166e

Abstract

We utilize a range of emission scenarios for shipping to determine the induced global-mean radiative forcing and temperature change. Ship emission scenarios consistent with the new regulations on nitrogen oxides (NOx) and sulfur dioxide (SO2) from the International Maritime Organization and two of the Representative Concentration Pathways are used as input to a simple climate model (SCM). Based on a complex aerosol-climate model we develop and test new parametrizations of the indirect aerosol effect (IAE) in the SCM that account for nonlinearities in radiative forcing of ship-induced IAE. We find that shipping causes a net global cooling impact throughout the period 1900−2050 across all parametrizations and scenarios. However, calculated total net global-mean temperature change in 2050 ranges from −0.03[−0.07,−0.002]°C to −0.3[−0.6,−0.2]°C in the A1B scenario. This wide range across parametrizations emphasizes the importance of properly representing the IAE in SCMs and to reflect the uncertainties from complex global models. Furthermore, our calculations show that the future ship-induced temperature response is likely a continued cooling if SO2 and NOx emissions continue to increase due to a strong increase in activity, despite current emission regulations. However, such cooling does not negate the need for continued efforts to reduce CO2 emissions, since residual warming from CO2 is long-lived.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/77459/
Document Type:Article
Title:Global-Mean Temperature Change from Shipping toward 2050: Improved Representation of the Indirect Aerosol Effect in Simple Climate Models
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthors ORCID iD
Tronstad Lund, Marianne CICERO, Oslo, NUNSPECIFIED
Eyring, Veronika DLRUNSPECIFIED
Fuglestvedt, Jan CICERO, Oslo, NUNSPECIFIED
Hendricks, Johannes DLRUNSPECIFIED
Lauer, Axel Univ. of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, USAUNSPECIFIED
Lee, David Manchester Metropolitan Univ., UKUNSPECIFIED
Righi, Mattia DLRUNSPECIFIED
Date:2012
Journal or Publication Title:Environmental Science & Technology
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:No
Gold Open Access:No
In SCOPUS:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
Volume:46
Page Range:pp. 8868-8877
Publisher:American Chemical society (ACS)
Status:Published
Keywords:ship emissions, climate change, aerosols, climate models
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Transport
HGF - Program Themes:Transport System
DLR - Research area:Transport
DLR - Program:V VS - Verkehrssystem
DLR - Research theme (Project):V - Verkehrsentwicklung und Umwelt (old)
Location: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Atmospheric Physics > Atmospheric Dynamics
Deposited By: Freund, Jana
Deposited On:24 Sep 2012 14:40
Last Modified:06 Sep 2019 15:25

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