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Review of hardware cost estimation methods, models and tools applied to early phases of space mission planning

Trivailo, Olga and Sippel, Martin and Şekercioğlu, Y. Ahmet (2012) Review of hardware cost estimation methods, models and tools applied to early phases of space mission planning. Progress in Aerospace Sciences. Elsevier. DOI: 10.1016/j.paerosci.2012.02.001

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Abstract

The primary purpose of this paper is to review currently existing cost estimation methods, models, tools and resources applicable to the space sector. While key space sector methods are outlined, a specific focus is placed on hardware cost estimation on a system level, particularly for early mission phases during which specifications and requirements are not yet crystallised, and information is limited. For the space industry, cost engineering within the systems engineering framework is an integral discipline. The cost of any space program now constitutes a stringent design criterion, which must be considered and carefully controlled during the entire program life cycle. A first step to any program budget is a representative cost estimate which usually hinges on a particular estimation approach, or methodology. Therefore appropriate selection of specific cost models, methods and tools is paramount, a difficult task given the highly variable nature, scope as well as scientific and technical requirements applicable to each program. Numerous methods, models and tools exist. However new ways are needed to address very early, pre-Phase 0 cost estimation during the initial program research and establishment phase when system specifications are limited, but the available research budget needs to be established and defined. Due to their specificity, for vehicles such as reusable launchers with a manned capability, a lack of historical data implies that using either the classic heuristic approach such as parametric cost estimation based on underlying CERs, or the analogy approach, is therefore, by definition, limited. This review identifies prominent cost estimation models applied to the space sector, and their underlying cost driving parameters and factors. Strengths, weaknesses, and suitability to specific mission types and classes are also highlighted. Current approaches which strategically amalgamate various cost estimation strategies both for formulation and validation of an estimate, and techniques and/or methods to attain representative and justifiable cost estimates are consequently discussed. Ultimately, the aim of the paper is to establish a baseline for development of a non-commercial, low cost, transparent cost estimation methodology to be applied during very early program research phases at a complete vehicle system level, for largely unprecedented manned launch vehicles in the future. This paper takes the first step to achieving this through the identification, analysis and understanding of established, existing techniques, models, tools and resources relevant within the space sector.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/75378/
Document Type:Article
Title:Review of hardware cost estimation methods, models and tools applied to early phases of space mission planning
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthors ORCID iD
Trivailo, OlgaUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Sippel, MartinUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Şekercioğlu, Y. Ahmet ASekerci (at) ieee.orgUNSPECIFIED
Date:27 March 2012
Journal or Publication Title:Progress in Aerospace Sciences
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:No
Gold Open Access:No
In SCOPUS:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
DOI :10.1016/j.paerosci.2012.02.001
Publisher:Elsevier
Status:Published
Keywords:Cost engineering; Cost estimation; Cost model; Parametrics; Space hardware; Early mission phase
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Space
HGF - Program Themes:Space Transport
DLR - Research area:Raumfahrt
DLR - Program:R RP - Raumtransport
DLR - Research theme (Project):R - Raumfahrzeugsysteme - Systemanalyse Raumtransport
Location: Bremen
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Space Systems > Space Launcher Systems Analysis
Deposited By: Trivailo, Olga
Deposited On:03 Jul 2012 12:30
Last Modified:08 Mar 2018 18:49

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