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Attribution of observed changes in stratospheric ozone and temperature

Gillett, N.P. and Akiyoshi, H. and Bekki, S. and Braesicke, P. and Eyring, V. and Garcia, R. and Karpechko, A.Yu. and McLinden, C.A. and Morgenstern, O. and Plummer, D.A. and Pyle, J.A. and Rozanov, E. and Scinocca, J. and Shibata, K. (2011) Attribution of observed changes in stratospheric ozone and temperature. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 11, pp. 599-609. Copernicus Publications. doi: 10.5194/acp-11-599-2011.

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Official URL: http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/11/599/2011/


Three recently-completed sets of simulations of multiple chemistry-climate models with greenhouse gases only, with all anthropogenic forcings, and with anthropogenic and natural forcings, allow the causes of observed stratospheric changes to be quantitatively assessed using detection and attribution techniques. The total column ozone response to halogenated ozone depleting substances and to natural forcings is detectable in observations, but the total column ozone response to greenhouse gas changes is not separately detectable. In the middle and upper stratosphere, simulated and observed SBUV/SAGE ozone changes are broadly consistent, and separate anthropogenic and natural responses are detectable in observations. The influence of ozone depleting substances and natural forcings can also be detected separately in observed lower stratospheric temperature, and the magnitudes of the simulated and observed responses to these forcings and to greenhouse gas changes are found to be consistent. In the mid and upper stratosphere the simulated natural and combined anthropogenic responses are detectable and consistent with observations, but the influences of greenhouse gases and ozone-depleting substances could not be separately detected in our analysis.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/71763/
Document Type:Article
Title:Attribution of observed changes in stratospheric ozone and temperature
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iD
Gillett, N.P.Univ. of Victoria, Victoria, BC, CNDUNSPECIFIED
Akiyoshi, H.National Inst. for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, JUNSPECIFIED
Bekki, S.Institut Pierre-Simone Laplace, Paris, FUNSPECIFIED
Braesicke, P.Univ. of Cambridge, UKUNSPECIFIED
Karpechko, A.Yu.Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki, FINUNSPECIFIED
McLinden, C.A.Environment Canada, Toronto, CNDUNSPECIFIED
Morgenstern, O.Univ. of Cambridge, UKUNSPECIFIED
Plummer, D.A.Univ. of Victoria, Victoria, BC, CNDUNSPECIFIED
Pyle, J.A.Univ. of Cambridge, UKUNSPECIFIED
Rozanov, E.pmod, Davos, CHUNSPECIFIED
Scinocca, J.Univ. of Victoria, Victoria, BC, CNDUNSPECIFIED
Shibata, K.Meteorological Research Inst., Tsukuba, JUNSPECIFIED
Journal or Publication Title:Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
DOI :10.5194/acp-11-599-2011
Page Range:pp. 599-609
Publisher:Copernicus Publications
Keywords:stratospheric ozone, ozone trends, attribution
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Space
HGF - Program Themes:Earth Observation
DLR - Research area:Raumfahrt
DLR - Program:R EO - Earth Observation
DLR - Research theme (Project):R - Atmospheric and climate research
Location: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Atmospheric Physics > Atmospheric Dynamics
Deposited By: Freund, Jana
Deposited On:17 Nov 2011 17:32
Last Modified:02 May 2019 14:04

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