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Demographic Effects on Passenger Transport Demand

Mehlin, Markus and Klein-Hitpaß, Anne and Cyganski, Rita (2011) Demographic Effects on Passenger Transport Demand. In: Demography and Infrastructure. National and Regional Aspects of Demographic Change Environment & Policy, 51. Springer Dordrecht Heidelberg London New York. pp. 95-110. doi: 10.1007/978-94-007-0458-9. ISBN 978-94-007-0457-2. ISSN 1383-5130.

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Official URL: http://www.springer.com/de/book/9789400704572


Demographic change in Germany will lead to a remarkable change in the composition of the population, particulary in terms of the ageing of society with the prospect of a population decrease. These factors are the main determinants for future travel demand. This chapter describes the procedere of modelling transport for 2030 and illustrates the results with regard to the infrastructure. The findings of the Rostock Center serve as the main basis for the data in the transport model, belonging to the family of microscopic activity-based demand models. The future passenger transport demand will decrease in most areas. The workload of the road infrastructure will decrease correspondingly. Differences of the impact between the two demographic scenarios are low. Findings show significant spatial differeces. The western part of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, for example, will experience some trip increases, but most of the regions will face a decrease in transport demand. Public transport in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania will not gain any more passengers in the future. We therefore conclude that the planning process for infrastructure should include a proper approach that assesses the options of disassembling streets and restructuring them. Criteria for making this decision should not be the workload of the road, but rather accessibility questions. Future land use management will also play an important role.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/69091/
Document Type:Book Section
Title:Demographic Effects on Passenger Transport Demand
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iD
Mehlin, Markusmarkus.mehlin (at) dlr.deUNSPECIFIED
Cyganski, Ritarita.cyganski (at) dlr.deUNSPECIFIED
Journal or Publication Title:Demography and Infrastructure. National and Regional Aspects of Demographic Change
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:No
In ISI Web of Science:No
DOI :10.1007/978-94-007-0458-9
Page Range:pp. 95-110
EditorsEmailEditor's ORCID iD
Dr. Kronenberg, TobiasForschungszentrum JülichUNSPECIFIED
Dr. Kuckshinrichs, WilhelmForschungszentrum JülichUNSPECIFIED
Publisher:Springer Dordrecht Heidelberg London New York
Series Name:Environment & Policy
Keywords:passenger transport demand, travel behaviour, activity-based demand modelling, trip generation, demographic change
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Transport
HGF - Program Themes:other
DLR - Research area:Transport
DLR - Program:V - no assignment
DLR - Research theme (Project):V - no assignment
Location: Berlin-Adlershof
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Transport Research
Deposited By: George, Michaela
Deposited On:01 Aug 2011 14:46
Last Modified:31 Jul 2019 19:31

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