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Multimodel assessment of the factors driving stratospheric ozone evolution over the 21st century

Oman, L.D. and Plummer, D.A. and Waugh, D.W. and Austin, J. and Scinocca, J.F. and Douglass, A.R. and Salawitch, R.J. and Canty, T. and Akiyoshi, H. and Bekki, S. and Braesicke, P. and Butchart, N. and Chipperfield, M.P. and Cugnet, D. and Dhomse, S. and Eyring, Veronika and Frith, S. and Hardiman, S.C. and Kinnison, D.E. and Lamarque, J.-F. and Mancini, E. and Marchand, M. and Michou, M. and Morgenstern, O. and Nakamura, T. and Nielsen, J.E. and Olivié, D. and Pitari, G. and Pyle, J. and Rozanov, E. and Shepherd, T.G. and Shibata, K. and Stolarski, R.S. and Teyssèdre, H. and Tian, W. and Yamashita, Y. and Ziemke, J.R. (2010) Multimodel assessment of the factors driving stratospheric ozone evolution over the 21st century. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 115 (D24306), pp. 1-21. Wiley. DOI: 10.1029/2010JD014362 ISSN 0148-0227

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Official URL: http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2010/2010JD014362.shtml

Abstract

The evolution of stratospheric ozone from 1960 to 2100 is examined in simulations from 14 chemistry-climate models, driven by prescribed levels of halogens and greenhouse gases. There is general agreement among the models that total column ozone reached a minimum around year 2000 at all latitudes, projected to be followed by an increase over the first half of the 21st century. In the second half of the 21st century, ozone is projected to continue increasing, level off, or even decrease depending on the latitude. Separation into partial columns above and below 20 hPa reveals that these latitudinal differences are almost completely caused by differences in the model projections of ozone in the lower stratosphere. At all latitudes, upper stratospheric ozone increases throughout the 21st century and is projected to return to 1960 levels well before the end of the century, although there is a spread among models in the dates that ozone returns to specific historical values. We find decreasing halogens and declining upper atmospheric temperatures, driven by increasing greenhouse gases, contribute almost equally to increases in upper stratospheric ozone. In the tropical lower stratosphere, an increase in upwelling causes a steady decrease in ozone through the 21st century, and total column ozone does not return to 1960 levels in most of the models. In contrast, lower stratospheric and total column ozone in middle and high latitudes increases during the 21st century, returning to 1960 levels well before the end of the century in most models.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/68046/
Document Type:Article
Title:Multimodel assessment of the factors driving stratospheric ozone evolution over the 21st century
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthors ORCID iD
Oman, L.D.NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USAUNSPECIFIED
Plummer, D.A.Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Victoria, BC, CNDUNSPECIFIED
Waugh, D.W.Johns Hopkins Univ., Baltimore, MY, USAUNSPECIFIED
Austin, J.NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, USAUNSPECIFIED
Scinocca, J.F.Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Victoria, BC, CNDUNSPECIFIED
Douglass, A.R.NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USAUNSPECIFIED
Salawitch, R.J.Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Victoria, BC, CNDUNSPECIFIED
Canty, T.Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD, USAUNSPECIFIED
Akiyoshi, H.National Inst. for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, JUNSPECIFIED
Bekki, S.UPMC, Paris, FUNSPECIFIED
Braesicke, P.Univ. of Cambridge, Cambridge, UKUNSPECIFIED
Butchart, N.Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UKUNSPECIFIED
Chipperfield, M.P.Univ. of Leeds, Leeds, UKUNSPECIFIED
Cugnet, D.UPMC, Paris, FUNSPECIFIED
Dhomse, S.Univ. of Leeds, Leeds, UKUNSPECIFIED
Eyring, VeronikaDLR, IPAUNSPECIFIED
Frith, S.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Hardiman, S.C.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Kinnison, D.E.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Lamarque, J.-F.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Mancini, E.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Marchand, M.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Michou, M.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Morgenstern, O.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Nakamura, T.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Nielsen, J.E.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Olivié, D.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Pitari, G.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Pyle, J.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Rozanov, E.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Shepherd, T.G.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Shibata, K.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Stolarski, R.S.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Teyssèdre, H.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Tian, W.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Yamashita, Y.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Ziemke, J.R.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Date:February 2010
Journal or Publication Title:Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:No
Gold Open Access:No
In SCOPUS:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
Volume:115
DOI :10.1029/2010JD014362
Page Range:pp. 1-21
Publisher:Wiley
ISSN:0148-0227
Status:Published
Keywords:ozone, stratosphere, chemistry-climate models, future evolution
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport (old)
HGF - Program:Space (old)
HGF - Program Themes:W EO - Erdbeobachtung
DLR - Research area:Space
DLR - Program:W EO - Erdbeobachtung
DLR - Research theme (Project):W - Vorhaben Atmosphären- und Klimaforschung (old)
Location: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Atmospheric Physics > Atmospheric Dynamics
Deposited By: Freund, Jana
Deposited On:05 Jan 2011 13:29
Last Modified:08 Mar 2018 18:32

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