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Recent trends of thunderstorm and hailstorm frequency and their relationship to atmospheric characteristics in southwest Germany

Kunz, Michael und Sander, Julia und Kottmeier, Christoph (2009) Recent trends of thunderstorm and hailstorm frequency and their relationship to atmospheric characteristics in southwest Germany. International Journal of Climatology, 29, Seiten 2283-2297. Wiley. DOI: 10.1002/joc.1865

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Offizielle URL: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.1865/abstract


In the context of climate change, it is of particular interest whether extreme events connected to severe thunderstorms have been increasing in number or intensity over the past few decades. Due to their small horizontal extent, such events are not entirely and uniquely captured by current observation systems. To obtain comprehensive information about the convective activity in the state of Baden-W�¼rttemberg (southwest Germany), we analysed different datasets for the period 1974â��2003. They comprise thunderstorm days detected at synoptic stations, hail damage data from a building insurance company, large-scale circulation and weather patterns, and convective indices derived from radiosonde observations at 12:00 UTC. While the annual number of thunderstorm days remained almost unchanged in the mean, hail damage and hail days significantly increased in the last three decades. Both damage and additional radar data indicate that the majority of hail days can be attributed to three specific circulation patterns. Two of the three patterns associated with the preferable occurrence of hail show a significant increase. Most of the commonly used convective indices that depend upon surface temperature and moisture reveal a positive trend regarding both the annual extreme values and the number of days above/below specific thresholds. A relationship was established between the indices and the annual number of hail damage days, yielding correlation coefficients between 0.65 and 0.80. In contrast to this, indices derived from temperature and moisture at higher levels exhibit either a negative or no significant trend. It is shown that the trend directions of the indices may be attributed to differential temperature and moisture stratification in the various atmospheric layers. The significant positive trends of both surface temperature and water vapour can be concisely expressed by an increase in wet-bulb potential temperature. This indicates the presence of warmer parcels throughout the whole troposphere during convection.

Titel:Recent trends of thunderstorm and hailstorm frequency and their relationship to atmospheric characteristics in southwest Germany
AutorenInstitution oder E-Mail-AdresseAutoren-ORCID-iD
Kunz, Michaelmichael.kunz@kit.eduNICHT SPEZIFIZIERT
Sander, Juliajulia.sander@dlr.deNICHT SPEZIFIZIERT
Kottmeier, Christophchristoph.kottmeier@kit.eduNICHT SPEZIFIZIERT
Datum:20 Februar 2009
Erschienen in:International Journal of Climatology
Referierte Publikation:Ja
In ISI Web of Science:Ja
DOI :10.1002/joc.1865
Seitenbereich:Seiten 2283-2297
Stichwörter:climate change; thunderstorm day; hail day; hail climatology; hail damage; insurance; convective indices
HGF - Forschungsbereich:Verkehr und Weltraum (alt)
HGF - Programm:Weltraum (alt)
HGF - Programmthema:W EO - Erdbeobachtung
DLR - Schwerpunkt:Weltraum
DLR - Forschungsgebiet:W EO - Erdbeobachtung
DLR - Teilgebiet (Projekt, Vorhaben):W - Vorhaben Atmosphären- und Klimaforschung (alt)
Standort: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institute & Einrichtungen:Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre > Dynamik der Atmosphäre
Hinterlegt von: Sander, Julia
Hinterlegt am:10 Dez 2010 12:29
Letzte Änderung:08 Mär 2018 19:02

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