FORECASTING METHOD FOR DISRUPTIVE SPACE TECHNOLOGIES

Kurzfassung

This paper documents a research initiative performed on Disruptive Space Technologies (DST) in the European space sector and elaborates on a method of forecasting them. The research was performed at the DLR in Bremen in co-operation with the University of Groningen as part of the Master thesis of the researcher. This research initiative is currently in its infancy and will be extended in the future. The theory of Disruptive Technologies (DTs), first introduced by Bower & Christensen (1995), explains the evolution of technologies which disrupt the status quo of both dominant technology platforms and competitive market layouts. It does this by having an alternate perceived performance mix, which is valued higher by the customer then the dominant technology. This research states that there is a difference between DTs as described in business literature and DTs for the space sector. This difference is caused by a fundamental difference in market dynamics. The paper explains the difference between the different innovation types and DTs. Based on these differences and the characteristics of the space sector, a new theory of disruptive space technologies will be developed. Based on this theory a tool will be constructed, which can be used as a forecasting method for these disruptive space technologies. It does this by researching indicators which indicate a potential for disruptiveness of technologies in the space sector. The indicators resulting from these categories will serve as criteria for a concept scoring matrix. This matrix will evaluate and compare several potentially disruptive space technology concepts with a dominant space technology. The result of this evaluation will be a forecast of the market layout of a specific space technology domain. Nevertheless, the purpose of this paper is not to deliver ready to use method, but rather to indicate the general direction in which further research could lead to a complete theory of disruptive space technologies and an accurate forecasting method.