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Present-Day and Future Global Bottom-Up Ship Emission Inventories Including Polar Routes

Paxian, Andreas and Eyring, Veronika and Beer, Winfried and Sausen, Robert and Wright, Claire (2010) Present-Day and Future Global Bottom-Up Ship Emission Inventories Including Polar Routes. Environmental Science & Technology, 44, pp. 1333-1339. American Chemical society (ACS). doi: 10.1021/es9022859. ISSN 0013-936X.

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Official URL: http://pubs.acs.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1021/es9022859


We present a global bottom-up ship emission algorithm that calculates fuel consumption, emissions, and vessel traffic densities for present-day (2006) and two future scenarios (2050) considering the opening of Arctic polar routes due to projected sea ice decline. Ship movements and actual ship engine power per individual ship from Lloyd’s Marine Intelligence Unit (LMIU) ship statistics for six months in 2006 and further mean engine data from literature serve as input. The developed SeaKLIM algorithm automatically finds the most probable shipping route for each combination of start and destination port of a certain ship movement by calculating the shortest path on a predefined model grid while considering land masses, sea ice, shipping canal sizes, and climatological mean wave heights. The resulting present-day ship activity agrees well with observations. The global fuel consumption of 221 Mt in 2006 lies in the range of previously published inventories when undercounting of ship numbers in the LMIU movement database (40,055 vessels) is considered. Extrapolated to 2007 and ship numbers per ship type of the recent International Maritime Organization (IMO) estimate (100,214 vessels), a fuel consumption of 349 Mt is calculated which is in good agreement with the IMO total of 333 Mt. The future scenarios show Arctic polar routes with regional fuel consumption on the Northeast and Northwest Passage increasing by factors of up to 9 and 13 until 2050, respectively.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/66562/
Document Type:Article
Title:Present-Day and Future Global Bottom-Up Ship Emission Inventories Including Polar Routes
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iDORCID Put Code
Wright, Claire Lloyd’s Marine Intelligence Unit, London, UKUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Journal or Publication Title:Environmental Science & Technology
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:No
Gold Open Access:No
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
Page Range:pp. 1333-1339
Publisher:American Chemical society (ACS)
Keywords:traffic, ship emission, climate change, Northeast Passage, Northwest Passage
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Transport
HGF - Program Themes:Terrestrial Vehicles (old)
DLR - Research area:Transport
DLR - Program:V BF - Bodengebundene Fahrzeuge
DLR - Research theme (Project):V - Next Generation Train (old)
Location: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Atmospheric Physics > Atmospheric Dynamics
Deposited By: Freund, Jana
Deposited On:24 Nov 2010 11:25
Last Modified:06 Sep 2019 15:25

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