elib
DLR-Header
DLR-Logo -> http://www.dlr.de
DLR Portal Home | Imprint | Privacy Policy | Contact | Deutsch
Fontsize: [-] Text [+]

The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of stratospheric ozone over the 21st century

Charlton-Perez, A.J. and Hawkins, E. and Eyring, V. and Cionni, I. and Bodeker, G.E. and Kinnison, D.E. and Akiyoshi, H. and Frith, S.M. and Garcia, R. and Gettelman, A. and Lamarque, J.F. and Nakamura, T. and Pawson, S. and Yamashita, Y. and Bekki, S. and Braesicke, P. and Chipperfield, M.P. and Dhomse, S. and Marchand, M. and Mancini, E. and Morgenstern, O. and Pitari, G. and Plummer, D. and Pyle, J.A. and Rozanov, E. and Scinocca, J. and Shibata, K. and Shepherd, T.G. and Tian, W. and Waugh, D.W. (2010) The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of stratospheric ozone over the 21st century. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 10, pp. 9473-9586. Copernicus Publications. DOI: 10.5194/acp-10-9473-2010

Full text not available from this repository.

Official URL: http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/10/9473/2010/acp-10-9473-2010.html

Abstract

Future stratospheric ozone concentrations will be determined both by changes in the concentration of ozone depleting substances (ODSs) and by changes in stratospheric and tropospheric climate, including those caused by changes in anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs). Since future economic development pathways and resultant emissions of GHGs are uncertain, anthropogenic climate change could be a significant source of uncertainty for future projections of stratospheric ozone. In this pilot study, using an "ensemble of opportunity" of chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations, the contribution of scenario uncertainty from different plausible emissions pathways for ODSs and GHGs to future ozone projections is quantified relative to the contribution from model uncertainty and internal variability of the chemistry-climate system. For both the global, annual mean ozone concentration and for ozone in specific geographical regions, differences between CCMs are the dominant source of uncertainty for the first two-thirds of the 21st century, up-to and after the time when ozone concentrations return to 1980 values. In the last third of the 21st century, dependent upon the set of greenhouse gas scenarios used, scenario uncertainty can be the dominant contributor. This result suggests that investment in chemistry-climate modelling is likely to continue to refine projections of stratospheric ozone and estimates of the return of stratospheric ozone concentrations to pre-1980 levels.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/66558/
Document Type:Article
Title:The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of stratospheric ozone over the 21st century
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthors ORCID iD
Charlton-Perez, A.J.Univ. of Reading, UKUNSPECIFIED
Hawkins, E.Univ. of Reading, UKUNSPECIFIED
Eyring, V.DLRUNSPECIFIED
Cionni, I.DLRUNSPECIFIED
Bodeker, G.E.Bodeker Sci., Alexandra, NZUNSPECIFIED
Kinnison, D.E.NCAR, Boulder, CO, USAUNSPECIFIED
Akiyoshi, H.Nat. Inst. for Environ. Studies, Tsukuba, JUNSPECIFIED
Frith, S.M.Science Systems and Applications, Lanham, MD, USAUNSPECIFIED
Garcia, R.NCAR, Boulder, CO, USAUNSPECIFIED
Gettelman, A.NCAR, Boulder, CO, USAUNSPECIFIED
Lamarque, J.F.NCAR, Boulder, CO, USAUNSPECIFIED
Nakamura, T.Nat. Inst. for Environ. Studies, Tsukuba, JUNSPECIFIED
Pawson, S.NASA, Greenbelt, MD, USAUNSPECIFIED
Yamashita, Y.Nat. Inst. for Environ. Studies, Tsukuba, JUNSPECIFIED
Bekki, S.Service d'Aeronomie, Paris, FUNSPECIFIED
Braesicke, P.Univ. of Cambridge, UKUNSPECIFIED
Chipperfield, M.P.Univ. of Leeds, UKUNSPECIFIED
Dhomse, S.Univ. of Leeds, UKUNSPECIFIED
Marchand, M.Service d'Aeronomie, Paris, FUNSPECIFIED
Mancini, E.Univ. L'Aquila, IUNSPECIFIED
Morgenstern, O.Nat. Inst. of Water and Atmos. Reasearch, Lauder, NZUNSPECIFIED
Pitari, G.Univ. L'Aquila, IUNSPECIFIED
Plummer, D.Environ. Canada, Victoria, BC, CNDUNSPECIFIED
Pyle, J.A.Univ. of Cambridge, UKUNSPECIFIED
Rozanov, E.World Radiation Center, Davos, CHUNSPECIFIED
Scinocca, J.Environ. Canada, Victoria, BC, CNDUNSPECIFIED
Shibata, K.Meteorological Research Inst., Tsukuba, JUNSPECIFIED
Shepherd, T.G.Univ. of Toronto, CNDUNSPECIFIED
Tian, W.Univ. of Leeds, UKUNSPECIFIED
Waugh, D.W.Johns Hopkins Univ., Baltimore, MD, USAUNSPECIFIED
Date:2010
Journal or Publication Title:Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:Yes
In SCOPUS:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
Volume:10
DOI :10.5194/acp-10-9473-2010
Page Range:pp. 9473-9586
Publisher:Copernicus Publications
Status:Published
Keywords:ozone, stratosphere, GHG, future evolution
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport (old)
HGF - Program:Space (old)
HGF - Program Themes:W EO - Erdbeobachtung
DLR - Research area:Space
DLR - Program:W EO - Erdbeobachtung
DLR - Research theme (Project):W - Vorhaben Atmosphären- und Klimaforschung (old)
Location: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Atmospheric Physics > Atmospheric Dynamics
Deposited By: Freund, Jana
Deposited On:24 Nov 2010 10:42
Last Modified:02 May 2019 14:04

Repository Staff Only: item control page

Browse
Search
Help & Contact
Information
electronic library is running on EPrints 3.3.12
Copyright © 2008-2017 German Aerospace Center (DLR). All rights reserved.