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Viability of a concentrating solar power forecasting system for participation in the Spanish electricity market

Kraas, Birk and Madlener, Reinhard and Pulvermüller, Benedikt and Schroedter-Homscheidt, Marion (2010) Viability of a concentrating solar power forecasting system for participation in the Spanish electricity market. SolarPaces 2010, 21.-24.9.2010, Perpignan, Frankreich.

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The Spanish energy legislation allows renewable energy producers to participate in the liberalized electricity market. Day-ahead market participation requires a power production forecast for the following day in hourly resolution, to be announced to the market operator before 10 a.m. For a concentrated solar power (CSP) plant, this means that a site-specific weather forecast for 38 hours has to be available, based on which electricity production is calculated by means of a power plant model. Since deviations from the production schedule may lead to deviation penalties, an important issue for production forecasting is the accuracy of direct normal irradiance (DNI) forecasts as one of the main input parameters. The European Space Agency (ESA) co-funded research project CSP-FoSyS aims at developing such an electricity production forecasting tool for the 50 MWel parabolic trough plant Andasol 3. This paper elaborates its economic viability by assessing a DNI forecast made available for the period 2007 to 2009. Commercially available DNI forecasts available today can mitigate penalty charges by about 40%, compared to the obvious alternative of persistence forecasting, i.e. assuming yesterday’s or today’s weather conditions for the following day. The impact of forecast accuracy improvements as well as adapted strategies is also assessed in this paper.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/66181/
Document Type:Conference or Workshop Item (Speech)
Title:Viability of a concentrating solar power forecasting system for participation in the Spanish electricity market
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthors ORCID iD
Kraas, BirkSolar Millennium AGUNSPECIFIED
Madlener, ReinhardRWTH AachenUNSPECIFIED
Pulvermüller, BenediktSolar Millennium AGUNSPECIFIED
Schroedter-Homscheidt, MarionDLRUNSPECIFIED
Refereed publication:No
Open Access:No
Gold Open Access:No
In ISI Web of Science:No
Keywords:electricity market, direct normal irradiance forecast, production forecast, CSP-FoSyS, Andasol, concentrating solar thermal
Event Title:SolarPaces 2010
Event Location:Perpignan, Frankreich
Event Type:international Conference
Event Dates:21.-24.9.2010
Organizer:IEA SolarPaces programme and CNRS-PROMES
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport (old)
HGF - Program:Space (old)
HGF - Program Themes:W EO - Erdbeobachtung
DLR - Research area:Space
DLR - Program:W EO - Erdbeobachtung
DLR - Research theme (Project):W - Vorhaben Atmosphären- und Klimaforschung (old)
Location: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institutes and Institutions:German Remote Sensing Data Center > Atmosphere
Deposited By: Schroedter-Homscheidt, Marion
Deposited On:24 Nov 2010 09:36
Last Modified:24 Nov 2010 09:36

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