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Sensitivity of Typhoon Forecasts to Different Subsets of Targeted Dropsonde Observations

Harnisch, Florian and Weissmann, Martin (2010) Sensitivity of Typhoon Forecasts to Different Subsets of Targeted Dropsonde Observations. Monthly Weather Review, 138 (7), pp. 2664-2680. American Meteorological Society. DOI: 10.1175/2010MWR3309.1


Official URL: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2010MWR3309.1


For the first time, joint tropical cyclone (TC) surveillance missions by several aircraft were conducted in the western North Pacific basin within the framework of The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC) 2008. The collected dropsonde observations were divided into three different subsets depending on their location relative to the TC to investigate which observations are most beneficial for typhoon track forecasting. Data denial experiments with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) global model were performed to analyze the influence of the different dropsonde subsets. In these experiments, the largest TC track forecast improvements are found for observations in the vicinity of the storm, placed at a circular ring at the outer boundary of the TC. In contrast, observations in remote regions indicated to be sensitive by singular vectors seem to have a relatively small influence with a slight positive tendency on average. Observations in the TC core and center lead to large analysis differences, but only very small mean forecast improvements. This is likely related to the fact that even modern high-resolution global models cannot fully resolve the TC center and thus can only use a relatively small part of the information provided by observations within the TC center. Times prior to landfall and recurvature are stronger affected by additional observations, while the influence on the track forecast after recurvature is relatively weak.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/65130/
Document Type:Article
Title:Sensitivity of Typhoon Forecasts to Different Subsets of Targeted Dropsonde Observations
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthors ORCID iD
Harnisch, Florianflorian.harnisch (at) dlr.deUNSPECIFIED
Date:July 2010
Journal or Publication Title:Monthly Weather Review
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:No
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
DOI :10.1175/2010MWR3309.1
Page Range:pp. 2664-2680
Publisher:American Meteorological Society
Keywords:Typhoon forecast, targeting, dropsonde
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport (old)
HGF - Program:Space (old)
HGF - Program Themes:W EO - Erdbeobachtung
DLR - Research area:Space
DLR - Program:W EO - Erdbeobachtung
DLR - Research theme (Project):W - Projekt ADM II (old)
Location: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Atmospheric Physics > Lidar
Deposited By: Harnisch, Florian
Deposited On:07 Sep 2010 08:19
Last Modified:31 Jul 2019 19:28

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