Historical Evolution of Space Systems

Kurzfassung

ABSTRACT Since the launch of Sputnik in 1957, thousands of satellites and space probes have been sent into space. The typical spacecraft subsystems were subject of steady technology improvements during the last five decades, which led to many changes in design and layout. Darwin taught us that biological systems adapt and improve by a process of natural selection, known to us as evolu-tion. The question rises if similar forces lead to an evolution within the technical world of spacecraft engineering? Can technical systems evolve over time so that one can call it technology evolution? Influences like technology S-curves, trend analysis, disruptive technology innovations, technology maps, space system failure studies and differ-ent subsystem development ratios are only a few factors that need to be considered in order to answer the question. The results presented in this paper are based on the intensive research and analysis of a specially created database, fed from several (smaller) databases containing technical specifications (mass & power budgets) of hundreds of spacecrafts. The focus was set on exploration systems, which were analysed with different regression and correla-tion algorithms in order to reveal specific trends of a spacecraft subsystem as a function of time. Analysing the evolution of spacecraft systems has two main purposes: To give technical guidance for future space-craft designs (performed e.g. in Concurrent Engineering studies) as well as to establish a system to evaluate which technologies are worth investing in, depending on their overall technology maturity. The paper was prepared within the Department for System Analysis Space Segments at the Institute of Space Systems (German Aerospace Center - DLR) in co-operation with the University of Applied Sciences, Bremen (Germany)