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Multimodel projections of stratospheric ozone in the 21st century

Eyring, V. and Waugh, D.W. and Bodeker, G.E. and Cordero, E. and Akiyoshi, H. and Austin, J. and Beagley, S.R. and Boville, B. and Braesicke, P. and Brühl, C. and Butchart, N. and Chipperfield, M.P. and Dameris, M. and Deckert, R. and Deushi, M. and Frith, S.M. and Garcia, R.R. and Gettelman, A. and Giorgetta, M. and Kinnison, D.E. and Mancini, E. and Manzini, E. and Marsh, D.R. and Matthes, S. and Nagashima, T. and Newman, P.A. and Nielsen, J. E. and Pawson, S. and Pitari, G. and Plummer, D.A. and Rozanov, E. and Schraner, M. and Scinocca, J.F. and Semeniuk, K. and Shepherd, T.G. and Shibata, K. and Steil, B. and Stolarski, R. and Tian, W. and Yoshiki, M. (2007) Multimodel projections of stratospheric ozone in the 21st century. Journal of Geophysical Research, 112 (D16303), pp. 1-24. Wiley. DOI: 10.1029/2006JD008332

Full text not available from this repository.

Official URL: http://www.agu.org/journals/ABS/2007/2006JD008332.shtml

Abstract

Simulations from eleven coupled chemistry-climate models (CCMs) employing nearly identical forcings have been used to project the evolution of stratospheric ozone throughout the 21st century. The model-to-model agreement in projected temperature trends is good, and all CCMs predict continued, global mean cooling of the stratosphere over the next 5 decades, increasing from around 0.25 K/decade at 50 hPa to around 1 K/ decade at 1 hPa under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario. In general, the simulated ozone evolution is mainly determined by decreases in halogen concentrations and continued cooling of the global stratosphere due to increases in greenhouse gases (GHGs). Column ozone is projected to increase as stratospheric halogen concentrations return to 1980s levels. Because of ozone increases in the middle and upper stratosphere due to GHGinduced cooling, total ozone averaged over midlatitudes, outside the polar regions, and globally, is projected to increase to 1980 values between 2035 and 2050 and before lowerstratospheric halogen amounts decrease to 1980 values. In the polar regions the CCMs simulate small temperature trends in the first and second half of the 21st century in midwinter. Differences in stratospheric inorganic chlorine (Cly) among the CCMs are key to diagnosing the intermodel differences in simulated ozone recovery, in particular in the Antarctic. It is found that there are substantial quantitative differences in the simulated Cly, with the October mean Antarctic Cly peak value varying from less than 2 ppb to over 3.5 ppb in the CCMs, and the date at which the Cly returns to 1980 values varying from before 2030 to after 2050. There is a similar variation in the timing of recovery of Antarctic springtime column ozone back to 1980 values. As most models underestimate peak Cly near 2000, ozone recovery in the Antarctic could occur even later, between 2060 and 2070. In the Arctic the column ozone increase in spring does not follow halogen decreases as closely as in the Antarctic, reaching 1980 values before Arctic halogen amounts decrease

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/49632/
Document Type:Article
Title:Multimodel projections of stratospheric ozone in the 21st century
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthors ORCID iD
Eyring, V.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Waugh, D.W.Johns Hopkins Univ., Baltimore, MD, USAUNSPECIFIED
Bodeker, G.E.National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Lauder, NZUNSPECIFIED
Cordero, E.San Jose State Univ., San Jose, CA, USAUNSPECIFIED
Akiyoshi, H.National Inst. for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, JUNSPECIFIED
Austin, J.NOAA, Princeton, NJ, USAUNSPECIFIED
Beagley, S.R.York Univ., Toronto, CNDUNSPECIFIED
Boville, B.NCAR Boulder, CO, USAUNSPECIFIED
Braesicke, P.Cambridge Univ., Cambridge, UKUNSPECIFIED
Brühl, C.MPI, MainzUNSPECIFIED
Butchart, N.Met Office Climate Research Division, Exeter, UKUNSPECIFIED
Chipperfield, M.P.Univ. of Leeds, Leeds, UKUNSPECIFIED
Dameris, M.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Deckert, R.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Deushi, M.Meteorological Research Inst., Tsukuba, JUNSPECIFIED
Frith, S.M.SSAI, Lanham, MD, USAUNSPECIFIED
Garcia, R.R.NCAR Boulder, CO, USAUNSPECIFIED
Gettelman, A.NCAR Boulder, CO, USAUNSPECIFIED
Giorgetta, M.MPI, HamburgUNSPECIFIED
Kinnison, D.E.NCAR Boulder, CO, USAUNSPECIFIED
Mancini, E.Univ. L’Aquila, L’Aquila, IUNSPECIFIED
Manzini, E.CMCC, Bologna, IUNSPECIFIED
Marsh, D.R.NCAR Boulder, CO, USAUNSPECIFIED
Matthes, S.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Nagashima, T.National Inst. for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, JUNSPECIFIED
Newman, P.A.NASA, Greenbelt, MD, USAUNSPECIFIED
Nielsen, J. E.SSAI, Lanham, MD, USAUNSPECIFIED
Pawson, S.NASA, Greenbelt, MD, USAUNSPECIFIED
Pitari, G.Univ. L’Aquila, L’Aquila, IUNSPECIFIED
Plummer, D.A.Environment Canada, Toronto, CNDUNSPECIFIED
Rozanov, E.ETHZ, Davos, CHUNSPECIFIED
Schraner, M.ETH Zurich, CHUNSPECIFIED
Scinocca, J.F.Univ. of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia, CNDUNSPECIFIED
Semeniuk, K.York Univ., Toronto, CNDUNSPECIFIED
Shepherd, T.G.Univ. of Toronto, Toronto, CNDUNSPECIFIED
Shibata, K.Meteorological Research Inst., Tsukuba, JUNSPECIFIED
Steil, B.MPI, MainzUNSPECIFIED
Stolarski, R.NASA, Greenbelt, MD, USAUNSPECIFIED
Tian, W.Univ. of Leeds, Leeds, UKUNSPECIFIED
Yoshiki, M.National Inst. for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, JUNSPECIFIED
Date:2007
Journal or Publication Title:Journal of Geophysical Research
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:No
Gold Open Access:No
In SCOPUS:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
Volume:112
DOI :10.1029/2006JD008332
Page Range:pp. 1-24
Publisher:Wiley
Status:Published
Keywords:chemistry-climate modeling, ozone recovery, stratosphere
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport (old)
HGF - Program:Space (old)
HGF - Program Themes:W EO - Erdbeobachtung
DLR - Research area:Space
DLR - Program:W EO - Erdbeobachtung
DLR - Research theme (Project):W - Vorhaben Atmosphären- und Klimaforschung (old)
Location: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Atmospheric Physics > Atmospheric Dynamics
Deposited By: Freund, Jana
Deposited On:06 Sep 2007
Last Modified:08 Mar 2018 18:43

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