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Solar cycle effect delays onset of ozone recovery

Dameris, Martin and Matthes, Sigrun and Deckert, Rudolf and Grewe, Volker and Ponater, Michael (2006) Solar cycle effect delays onset of ozone recovery. Geophysical Research Letters, 33, L03806-1-L03806-4. Wiley. DOI: 10.1029/2005GL024741

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Abstract

Short- and long-term changes of total ozone are investigated by means of an ensemble simulation with the coupled chemistry-climate model E39/C for the period 1960 to 2020. Past total ozone changes are well simulated on both, long (decadal) and short (monthly) timescales. Even the 2002 Antarctic ozone anomaly appears in the ensemble. The model results indicate that the 11-year solar cycle will delay the onset of a sustained ozone recovery. The lowest global mean total ozone values occur between 2005 and 2010, although stratospheric chlorine loading is assumed to decline after 2000. E39/C results exhibit a significant increase of total ozone after the beginning of the next decade, following the upcoming solar minimum. The observed ozone increase in the second half of the 1990s is reproduced by E39/C and is identified as a combined post- Pinatubo and solar cycle effect rather than the beginning of a sustainable ozone recovery.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/48935/
Document Type:Article
Title:Solar cycle effect delays onset of ozone recovery
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthors ORCID iD
Dameris, MartinUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Matthes, SigrunUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Deckert, RudolfUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Grewe, VolkerUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Ponater, MichaelUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Date:2006
Journal or Publication Title:Geophysical Research Letters
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:No
Gold Open Access:No
In SCOPUS:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
Volume:33
DOI :10.1029/2005GL024741
Page Range:L03806-1-L03806-4
Publisher:Wiley
Status:Published
Keywords:sun, stratospheric ozone, stratosphere, chemistry-climate model
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport (old)
HGF - Program:Space (old)
HGF - Program Themes:W EO - Erdbeobachtung
DLR - Research area:Space
DLR - Program:W EO - Erdbeobachtung
DLR - Research theme (Project):W - Vorhaben Atmosphären- und Klimaforschung (old)
Location: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Atmospheric Physics > Atmospheric Dynamics
Deposited By: Dameris, Prof. Dr. rer. nat. Martin
Deposited On:12 Sep 2007
Last Modified:08 Mar 2018 18:28

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