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Assessment of temperature, trace species, and ozone in chemistry-climate model simulations of the recent past

Eyring, Veronika and Butchart, Neal and Waugh, Darryn W. and Akiyoshi, Hideharu and Austin, John and Bekki, Slimane and Bodeker, Greg E. and Boville, Byron A. and Brühl, Christoph and Chipperfield, Martyn P. and Cordero, Eugene and Dameris, Martin and Deushi, Makoto and Fioletov, Vitali E. and Frith, Stacey M. and Garcia, Rolando R. and Gettelman, Andrew and Giorgetta, Marco A. and Grewe, Volker and Jourdain, Line and Kinnison, Doug E. and Mancini, Eva and Manzini, Elisa and Marchand, Marion and Marsh, Daniel R. and Nagashima, Tatsuya and Nielsen, Eric and Newman, Paul A. and Pawson, Steven and Pitari, Giovanni and Plummer, David A. and Rozanov, Eugene and Schraner, Martin and Shepherd, Theodore G. and Shibata, Kiyotaka and Stolarski, Richard S. and Struthers, Hamish and Tian, Wenshou and Yoshiki, Motoyoshi (2006) Assessment of temperature, trace species, and ozone in chemistry-climate model simulations of the recent past. Journal of Geophysical Research, 111, D22308. Wiley. DOI: 10.1029/2006JD007327

Full text not available from this repository.

Official URL: http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2006/2006JD007327.shtml


Simulations of the stratosphere from thirteen coupled chemistry-climate models (CCMs) are evaluated to provide guidance for the interpretation of ozone predictions made by the same CCMs. The focus of the evaluation is on how well the fields and processes that are important for determining the ozone distribution are represented in the simulations of the recent past. The core period of the evaluation is from 1980 to 1999 but long-term trends are compared for an extended period (1960–2004). Comparisons of polar high-latitude temperatures show that most CCMs have only small biases in the Northern Hemisphere in winter and spring, but still have cold biases in the Southern Hemisphere spring below 10 hPa. Most CCMs display the correct stratospheric response of polar temperatures to wave forcing in the Northern, but not in the Southern Hemisphere. Global long-term stratospheric temperature trends are in reasonable agreement with satellite and radiosonde observations. Comparisons of simulations of methane, mean age of air, and propagation of the annual cycle in water vapor show a wide spread in the results, indicating differences in transport. However, for around half the models there is reasonable agreement with observations. In these models the mean age of air and the water vapor tape recorder signal are generally better than reported in previous model intercomparisons. Comparisons of the water vapor and inorganic chlorine (Cly) fields also show a large intermodel spread. Differences in tropical water vapor mixing ratios in the lower stratosphere are primarily related to biases in the simulated tropical tropopause temperatures and not transport. The spread in Cly, which is largest in the polar lower stratosphere, appears to be primarily related to transport differences. In general the amplitude and phase of the annual cycle in total ozone is well simulated apart from the southern high latitudes. Most CCMs show reasonable agreement with observed total ozone trends and variability on a global scale, but a greater spread in the ozone trends in polar regions in spring, especially in the Arctic. In conclusion, despite the wide range of skills in representing different processes assessed here, there is sufficient agreement between the majority of the CCMs and the observations that some confidence can be placed in their predictions.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/45743/
Document Type:Article
Title:Assessment of temperature, trace species, and ozone in chemistry-climate model simulations of the recent past
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthors ORCID iD
Butchart, NealMetOffice, Exeter, UKUNSPECIFIED
Waugh, Darryn W.Johns Hopkins Univ., Baltimore, Maryland, USAUNSPECIFIED
Akiyoshi, HideharuNational Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, JUNSPECIFIED
Bekki, SlimaneService d'Aeronomie du CNRS, Paris, FUNSPECIFIED
Bodeker, Greg E.NIWA, Lauder, NZUNSPECIFIED
Boville, Byron A.NCAR, Boulder, CO, USAUNSPECIFIED
Brühl, ChristophMPI für Chemie, MainzUNSPECIFIED
Chipperfield, Martyn P.Univ. of Leeds, Leeds, UKUNSPECIFIED
Cordero, EugeneSan José State Univ., San José, CA, USAUNSPECIFIED
Deushi, MakotoMeteorological Research Inst., Tsukuba, JUNSPECIFIED
Fioletov, Vitali E.Environment Canada, Toronto, CNDUNSPECIFIED
Frith, Stacey M.NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USAUNSPECIFIED
Garcia, Rolando R.NCAR, Boulder, CO, USAUNSPECIFIED
Gettelman, AndrewNCAR, Boulder, CO, USAUNSPECIFIED
Giorgetta, Marco A.MPI für Meteorologie, HamburgUNSPECIFIED
Jourdain, LineService d'Aeronomie du CNRS, FUNSPECIFIED
Kinnison, Doug E.NCAR, Boulder, CO, USAUNSPECIFIED
Mancini, EvaDipartimento di Fisica, L'Aquila, IUNSPECIFIED
Manzini, ElisaIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna, IUNSPECIFIED
Marchand, MarionService d'Aeronomie du CNRS, FUNSPECIFIED
Marsh, Daniel R.NCAR, Boulder, CO, USAUNSPECIFIED
Nagashima, TatsuyaNational Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, JUNSPECIFIED
Nielsen, EricNASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USAUNSPECIFIED
Newman, Paul A.NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USAUNSPECIFIED
Pawson, StevenNASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USAUNSPECIFIED
Pitari, GiovanniUniv. L'Aquila, Dipartimento di Fisica, L'Aquila, IUNSPECIFIED
Plummer, David A.Environment Canada, Toronto, CNDUNSPECIFIED
Rozanov, EugenePhysical-Meteorological Observatory, Davos, CHUNSPECIFIED
Schraner, MartinETH, Zürich, CHUNSPECIFIED
Shepherd, Theodore G.Univ. of Toronto, CNDUNSPECIFIED
Shibata, KiyotakaMeteorological Research Inst., Tsukuba, Japan.UNSPECIFIED
Stolarski, Richard S.NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USAUNSPECIFIED
Struthers, HamishNIWA, Lauder, NZUNSPECIFIED
Tian, WenshouUniv. of Leeds, Leeds, UKUNSPECIFIED
Yoshiki, MotoyoshiNational Inst. for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, JUNSPECIFIED
Date:23 November 2006
Journal or Publication Title:Journal of Geophysical Research
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:No
Gold Open Access:No
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
DOI :10.1029/2006JD007327
Page Range:D22308
Keywords:chemistry-climate modeling; stratospheric ozone and climate; model evaluation
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport (old)
HGF - Program:Space (old)
HGF - Program Themes:W EO - Erdbeobachtung
DLR - Research area:Space
DLR - Program:W EO - Erdbeobachtung
DLR - Research theme (Project):W - Vorhaben Atmosphären- und Klimaforschung (old)
Location: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Atmospheric Physics > Atmospheric Dynamics
Deposited By: Eyring, PD Dr. habil. Veronika
Deposited On:20 Apr 2007
Last Modified:08 Mar 2018 18:43

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