Impact of Cross-Border Critical Infrastructure Interdependencies on National Analysis of Network Vulnerability to Cascading Effect

Kurzfassung

As social, economic and climatic dynamic environments continue to develop in 2026, nations' intricate networks of critical infrastructures are under increased threat of natural hazards and therefrom induced cascading disruptions. On this topic, scientific literature and national risk assessments often overlooked the cross-border capabilities of failures spreading across networks, in contrast to flood risk experts unanimously certifying: "Natural hazards do not obey to political borders". In this context, the thesis investigates how legal, functional and spatial discrepancies between the Netherlands and Germany, specifically between the Euregio Meuse-Rhine cities of Maastricht and Aachen, influence the analytical frameworks assessing the national vulnerabilities of critical infrastructure systems to cascading effects induced by flood scenarios. Through both qualitative reviews of legal acts and online documentation, and quantitative network assessments using expert technical testimonies and geospatial modelling, it is demonstrated how the exclusion of cross-border interdependencies adversely impact national vulnerability assessments of critical infrastructures networks to cascading effects. The results reveal a crucial lack of granularity in present regulatory frameworks, creating a definition gap affecting the accuracy of empirical cross-border and cross-sectoral networks comparisons. In the Euregio Meuse-Rhine case study, open-source geospatial data demonstrates the necessity to transboundary interactions in the modelling of critical infrastructure networks and assessment of flood risks. In conjunction with the observation that cross-border institutional cohesion is principally occurring at regional levels, it can be reasonably inferred that this necessity is amplified in studies on national network interdependencies. Collectively, the findings underscore the necessity to consider extraterritorial influences on domestic vulnerability, an incentive for national and intergovernmental institutions to standardise critical infrastructures legal frameworks and functional protection strategies.