Implementation of uncertainty information to the CAMS radiation service irradiance estimates

Kurzfassung

A probabilistic error model was developed by the CAMS team (Lezaca et. al, 2025), which is able to provide uncertainty information on the CRS irradiance estimates. For this model, an extensive database of quality controlled irradiance ground observations was created and used to condition the cumulative distribution function of the CRS estimates deviations (CRS estimates - observations) of selected CRS model inputs. By applying this model on CRS user requests for solar irradiance time series, a complete error probability distribution can be delivered on every location and time step requested. This poster shows how to use this uncertainty informaiton on real case applications, that is, the generation of possible realistaions of the CRS estimates using probabilistic inference and the use of the uncertatiny information on the well established commercial PV modeling software PVSyst.