Simulation-based method for defining ship decarbonization pathways under fuel-price uncertainty

Kurzfassung

Ship decarbonization can be achieved through combinations of operational measures, energy-efficiency technologies, and alternative fuels. To meet agreed emission-reduction targets in a cost- and resource-efficient manner, shipowners require ship- or fleet-specific pathways that define the measures to be taken at different time horizons, considering future fuel prices, technology costs and availability, and evolving regulations. This study presents a simulation-based method to assess the robustness of such pathways under uncertainty in future fuel prices. Implemented in MATLAB/Simulink, the method combines techno-economic analysis, detailed ship specifications, engineering models, and regulatory requirements from the IMO and the EU. It applies single- and double-factor price sweeps, fuel trade-off maps and break-even points, and an offline Monte Carlo analysis based on the sweep response surfaces to quantify how fuel-price uncertainty affects regulatory compliance and total additional cost per transport work (TAC/t·nm). The approach is demonstrated for a container-ship fleet spanning multiple size categories.