Measuring the Potential of space-Based Greenhouse Modules for Terrestrial Applications: A Market Estimation Study

Kurzfassung

Ensuring adequate amount of food for future astronauts will be a major challenge in longduration space missions and sustained space settlements planned on the Moon and Mars. It is aimed to address this problem by growing fresh food in space greenhouse modules. Analogue testings are ongoing to demonstrate this solution. Unsurprisingly, food challenge, in essence, are not extraterrestrial to us. The global increase in conflicts, political instability, extreme weather events, poverty and food crisis figures in many parts of the world are leading to an overall rise in people facing food insecurity. Food scenario in space shares many aspects with terrestrial food problems, especially those faced by people forcibly displaced due to above mentioned reasons and living in camps set by humanitarian agencies. Despite international help efforts, people in crisis often wait long for food and there is little to no fresh produce available to them due to logistical and infrastructure limitations. Like in space, a local supply of fresh food could address the food insecurity faced by the affected population. Thus, a technology transfer of innovative cultivation system from space to Earth is required. This is the reason behind MEPA (Mobile Emergency Plant-growing Applications) – a sustainable, compact, easily deployable cultivation system intended for terrestrial applications. It originates from research conducted in the field of greenhouse modules and advanced cultivation technologies for future space habitats by the EDEN research group at German Aerospace Center (DLR) in Bremen. The aim of this thesis is to quantitatively and qualitatively measure the market potential of MEPA system in humanitarian scenarios. For the quantitative measurement, a market segmentation was done - where the humanitarian market was classified into Conflict segment, Disaster segment and Food insecurity segment; and a top-down methodology was devised to conduct market estimations. Two approaches were used for estimation: first, from population data and second, from financial data. The global situation in these three market segments was investigated and using the collected data, a market estimation from population was conducted. Total market revenue and potential sales from the three humanitarian segments were the results of this estimation. In the estimation from finances, the revenue and sales figures from the global humanitarian and development funds were estimated. As a supplementary estimation, the World Food Programme funds were studied and potential revenue and sales were determined. The first objective of the study was thereby achieved. As the second objective, primary market research was conducted by distributing a survey to experts and professionals in the humanitarian and other relevant fields, and quantifiable subjective feedbacks on the system were gathered. A selling price based on the perceived value of MEPA was estimated and subsequently, the new revenue and sales figures were calculated. Finally, best-case and worst-case scenarios were identified using the earlier three estimates and these act as the upper and lower limits of the range which the revenue can possibly take. An expected revenue value within this range was also estimated. The findings from this thesis study suggests that MEPA has a good market potential in humanitarian scenarios and the system can be regarded as a useful asset in anticipatory humanitarian actions, with commercial expansion capability in other sectors facing food challenges.