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Mountain Wave Induced Polar Stratospheric Cloud Forecasts for Aircraft Science Flights during SOLVE/THESEO 2000

Eckermann, Stephen D. and Dörnbrack, Andreas and Vosper, Simon B. and Flentje, Harald and Mahoney, M. J. and Bui, T. Paul and Carslaw, Kenneth S. (2006) Mountain Wave Induced Polar Stratospheric Cloud Forecasts for Aircraft Science Flights during SOLVE/THESEO 2000. Weather and Forecasting, 21, pp. 42-68. American Meteorological Society. DOI: 10.1175/WAF901.1

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Abstract

The results of a multimodel forecasting effort to predict mountain wave–induced polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) for airborne science during the third Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE III) Ozone Loss and Validation Experiment (SOLVE)/Third European Stratospheric Experiment on Ozone (THESEO 2000) Arctic ozone campaign are assessed. The focus is on forecasts for five flights of NASA’s instrumented DC-8 research aircraft in which PSCs observed by onboard aerosol lidars were identified as wave related. Aircraft PSC measurements over northern Scandinavia on 25–27 January 2000 were accurately forecast by the mountain wave models several days in advance, permitting coordinated quasi- Lagrangian flights that measured their composition and structure in unprecedented detail. On 23 January 2000 mountain wave ice PSCs were forecast over eastern Greenland. Thick layers of wave-induced ice PSC were measured by DC-8 aerosol lidars in regions along the flight track where the forecasts predicted enhanced stratospheric mountain wave amplitudes. The data from these flights, which were planned using this forecast guidance, have substantially improved the overall understanding of PSC microphysics within mountain waves. Observations of PSCs south of the DC-8 flight track on 30 November 1999 are consistent with forecasts of mountain wave–induced ice clouds over southern Scandinavia, and are validated locally using radiosonde data. On the remaining two flights wavelike PSCs were reported in regions where no mountain wave PSCs were forecast. For 10 December 1999, it is shown that locally generated mountain waves could not have propagated into the stratosphere where the PSCs were observed, confirming conclusions of other recent studies. For the PSC observed on 14 January 2000 over northern Greenland, recent work indicates that nonorographic gravity waves radiated from the jet stream produced this PSC, confirming the original forecast of no mountain wave influence. This forecast is validated further by comparing with a nearby ER-2 flight segment to the south of the DC-8, which intercepted and measured local stratospheric mountain waves with properties similar to those predicted. In total, the original forecast guidance proves to be consistent with PSC data acquired from all five of these DC-8 flights. The work discussed herein highlights areas where improvements can be made in future wave PSC forecasting campaigns, such as use of anelastic rather than Boussinesq linearized gridpoint models and a need to forecast stratospheric gravity waves from sources other than mountains.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/22666/
Document Type:Article
Title:Mountain Wave Induced Polar Stratospheric Cloud Forecasts for Aircraft Science Flights during SOLVE/THESEO 2000
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthors ORCID iD
Eckermann, Stephen D.NRL, Washington, DC, USAUNSPECIFIED
Dörnbrack, AndreasUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Vosper, Simon B.Met Office, Exeter, UKUNSPECIFIED
Flentje, HaraldUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Mahoney, M. J.California Inst. of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USAUNSPECIFIED
Bui, T. PaulNASA, Moffett Field, CA, USAUNSPECIFIED
Carslaw, Kenneth S.Univ. of Leeds, Leeds, UKUNSPECIFIED
Date:2006
Journal or Publication Title:Weather and Forecasting
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:No
In SCOPUS:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
Volume:21
DOI :10.1175/WAF901.1
Page Range:pp. 42-68
Publisher:American Meteorological Society
Status:Published
Keywords:Polar stratospheric clouds, mesoscale forecasts, stratospheric mountain waves, campaign forecasts
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport (old)
HGF - Program:Space (old)
HGF - Program Themes:W EO - Erdbeobachtung
DLR - Research area:Space
DLR - Program:W EO - Erdbeobachtung
DLR - Research theme (Project):W - Vorhaben Atmosphären- und Klimaforschung (old)
Location: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Atmospheric Physics > Lidar
Institute of Atmospheric Physics > Cloud Physics and Traffic Meteorology
Deposited By: Freund, Jana
Deposited On:26 Sep 2007
Last Modified:06 Sep 2019 15:17

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