Estimating transport expenditure shares to assess the risk of being unable to afford transport in Germany

Kurzfassung

We estimate transport expenditure shares for different household groups in Germany. We use the German income and expenditure suvey as a data source and a Bayesian hierarchical beta regression to estimate the expenditure shares. We use poststratification to reweigh the estimates by taking into account group-sizes in the population. We find that average transport shares per group are heterogeneous and/or estimates are uncertain. Car ownership is the main driver for being unable to afford transport and car owners with low incomes are likely to be affected by future price increases.