The effects of space weather on LEO spacecraft aerodynamics and its implications for sustainable use of the space in the 25th solar cycle

Kurzfassung

The 25th solar cycle is currently at its peak and consequently driving the intensification of adverse environment for orbiting satellites in low earth orbit (LEO). The current solar activity may exacerbate the problem of atmospheric drag for LEO objects, which can lead to accelerated orbital decay and thus affect the existing space debris. In this work, we leverage on our institute’s cross-program capabilities in model-driven assessment and prediction of LEO objects’ aerodynamic, to investigate the impact of space weather-enhanced atmospheric drag in the 25th solar cycle. We performed a detailed analysis of long and short-term drag impact on selected catalogued LEO objects and thus provide information to improve space situational awareness in the current solar cycle. The short-term drag investigation includes the interval of the severe geomagnetic storm on 10-11 May 2024. We demonstrate the vital role of the capability to monitor and understand the constantly changing space environment in space sustainability effort.