The analysis and model-driven prediction of the deleterious impact of atmospheric drag on LEO debris around the peak of the 25th solar cycle

Kurzfassung

Space technology-enabled ability to provide important and sustained benefits to humanity in critical areas such as communications, Earth observations, technology development, navigation and space exploration is currently being threatened by the increasing population of debris in Earth orbit. Therefore, a deliberate, effective and sustained effort must be urgently made to resolve the problem of space debris and to ensure a risk-free utilization and sustainability of the near-earth space environment. In this paper, we investigate the impact of space weather on low Earth orbit (LEO) objects in the 25 solar cycle and its driving of debris population. We model the evolution of orbital decay of cataloged LEO objects (due to space weather-enhanced atmospheric drag) as a function of observed solar indices during the period of increasing solar activity. Using the simulated results, we provide space situational awareness (SSA) for debris removal mission planning and develop relevant concepts for orbital sustainability. We thus demonstrate the vital role of the capability to monitor and understand the constantly changing space environment in space sustainability effort.