Analysis of collision risk for low LEO satellites due to atmospheric drag enhancement by space weather

Kurzfassung

Space weather enhances atmospheric drag on satellites, perturbing orbital motion and increasing the risk of spacecraft collisions due to the large margin of error in spacecraft positioning. This condition may lead to an increase in debris populations in the heavily used low Earth orbits (LEO), putting space-based infrastructures at risk and threatening the sustainable use of near-Earth space. The awareness of the evolution of short- and long-term atmospheric drag impacts on the trajectory of Earth orbiting satellites can aid timely adjustment of their operations (by satellite operators) to minimize the impacts on the systems and/or collision probability. In this work, we perform comparative analysis of atmospheric drag impact on identified debris and typical satellites in low Earth orbit for regimes of predicted and observed solar indices during January to June 2023. We also perform collision risk analysis for LEO satellite in debris field and present preliminary results/observations from these efforts focused on orbital sustainability.