Estimation and Prediction of Long-duration Aerodynamic Drag Effect on Floating LEO Debris using the EDAC-adapted Model

Kurzfassung

The reliable estimation of atmospheric drag-induced orbital decay is quite challenging due to the limited representation of solar and non-solar forcing mechanisms in atmospheric density models and the complex operational dynamics of some spacecraft. Such uncertainties widen the gap between modelled estimates and actual orbital parameters and also hamper the ability of mission designers and/or operators to accurately estimate the remaining lifetime of spacecraft in orbit. Medium- to long-term estimation or prediction of a defunct spacecraft orbit is even more challenging when the object is no longer subject to ground commands. In this work, we present a robust atmospheric drag model adapted to the ephemeris data-assisted calibration (EDAC) simulation method, to improve the simulation and prediction of short-, medium- and long-term evolutions of the orbital decay of LEO objects, as functions of specific solar-geophysical indices. We show that the simulated long-term evolution of atmospheric drag-induced orbital decay compares well with the historical data of objects and confirms its validity using independent data. We present the EDAC-adapted model as a novel and effective approach to atmospheric drag prediction.