EU Scale-Up of Synthetic Sustainable Aviation Fuel: Production Pathways, Policy Instruments, Cost Drivers, and Market Formation

Abstract

Achieving climate neutrality in aviation requires substantial volumes of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), including both bio-based fuels, and synthetic fuels produced from CO2 and hydrogen produced via electrolysis powered by renewable electricity as the core energy input. The EU positions SAF as a central lever for aviation defossilisation. Synthetic SAF remains at an early stage of market development, facing a number of barriers. Successful market formation requires coherent policies that lower investment risk, establish credible long‑term demand signals, and enable the full supply‑chain build‑out, from renewable electricity through electrolysers to DAC capacity. The EU has adopted a policy package since 2023. Yet, commercial-scale synthetic SAF production in the EU remains limited to few demonstration plants. This article reviews the most mature synthetic SAF pathways, maps techno-economic and market barriers to rapid scale-up, and analyses how EU policy design and policy coherence affect deployment prospects.