Effects of Future Co2 Levels on Ionospheric Electron Density Response to Geomagnetic Storms

Kurzfassung

This work investigates how ionospheric electron density responds to geomagnetic storms under increasing greenhouse gas levels using the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model with thermosphere-ionosphere eXtension (WACCM-X). May 2024-like geomagnetic storms are simulated for four years (2016, 2040, 2061, and 2084) corresponding to CO₂ concentrations of 403, 500, 652, and 918 ppmv, following the “worst-case” projections given by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5–8.5. Our results indicate that higher CO₂ levels weaken the ionospheric response to geomagnetic storms. The peak electron density in the F2 layer (NmF2) declines markedly at midlatitudes, while showing modest increases in auroral and equatorial regions, with hemispheric asymmetry. The largest reductions occur between 220 and 400 km altitude.