Modeling of Private Mobility Load Profiles under Future Societal Change in Germany

Kurzfassung

Due to the transport sector's high dependence on fossil fuels, its decarbonization represents a key opportunity to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Private mobility accounts for the largest share of these emissions. But transitioning from fossil-fueled vehicles to battery electric ones will, in turn, affect future electricity supply. Therefore, an appropriate estimation of the sector's demand becomes critical for future energy system and decision-making. Despite its importance, methods for generating high-resolution and realistic projections of personal mobility energy demand remain underdeveloped in energy modeling. This limitation can lead to inaccuracies, particularly in medium- and long-term scenarios. One major challenge is the close relationship between energy demand and social behavior. Since variations in individual mobility patterns directly affect the load-shifting potential of electric vehicles, such behavioral factors must be addressed. This study presents a methodology to simulate future travel demand shifts that reflect societal variations from long-term scenarios and their electricity demand profiles. The use of scenario specific load profiles enables the integration into future energy systems and electricity market models.