High-resolution modeling of heating and cooling demand under societal and climate change scenarios: Implications for the operation of heat pumps in the German commercial sector

Kurzfassung

As part of an integrated energy transition, decarbonizing heating in the German building sector is a central objective of national energy and climate policy . In particular, the commercial sector plays a crucial role due to its heterogeneous building stock, diverse usage patterns, and significant demand for both space heating and cooling [ref]. Understanding how future heat demand evolves under interacting long-term drivers such as climate change and societal transformation is essential for robust planning of climate-neutral heat supply pathways based on electrification, renewable energy integration, and sector coupling.

This study presents an integrated modeling approach to obtain future heating and cooling demand for the German commercial sector under six contrasting long-term societal scenarios and three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) for climate change. The method combines a model for delivering time series for heat and cooling demand time series at hourly resolution with energy systems optimization in order to assess the role of electrification through heat pumps. Societal change scenarios are derived using a Cross-Impact Balance (CIB) analysis and translated into annual demand values and building stock development. For each scenario, hourly demand profiles are generated using an enhanced degree-day methodology that accounts for building thermal properties and stock, occupancy patterns and seasonal parameterization. Future climate impacts are incorporated using downscaled temperature projections from climate models. The obtained demand profiles are evaluated within an energy system optimization model comparing two configurations: one allowing optimization of electric heat pumps and other without. This comparison enables a systematic assessment of how climate-induced demand shifts and socieetal transformations influence technology choices, system costs, and electricity demand peaks. The results show that both climate change and societal developments substantially affect not only the annual heating and cooling demand but also its shape in profile, with significant implications for the integration of renewables. The findings highlight the importance of coupling high-resolution demand modeling with energy system optimization when assessing heat transition pathways and the deployment of heat pumps in the commercial building sector.