High-resolution modeling of heating-cooling demand in buildings under future climate change scenarios

Kurzfassung

Energy system modeling is essential for analyzing and selecting carbon neutral system designs that are able to ensure secure, sustainable and affordable energy supply. Climate change has a considerable influence on the energy system and can affect it in many different ways. One of the most significant is the effect on energy demand for heating and cooling purposes caused by more intense temperature conditions. A trend towards decarbonization for the heating sector, coupled with increasing cooling requirements, would have a significant impact on the future provision of electricity. Therefore, modeling future energy demand and its dynamics and interactions is highly important for decision-making in energy system planning. However, methods for developing realistic future energy demand in high resolution have been minimally studied or completely ignored in the energy system and market modeling which leads to significant errors and inaccuracies, specially under medium- and long-term future scenarios. This study proposes a methodology for delivering time series of energy consumption at high spatial-temporal resolution, and suitable for coupling with different developed energy modeling tools. Thus, it enables a more robust prediction of the future energy system and its economic feasibility on the basis of high-quality input data.