Health Co-Benefits of EU Power Decarbonisation Scenarios From Avoided PM2.5 Mortality and Associated Health Costs

Kurzfassung

Anthropogenic emissions of thermal power plants adversely affect the global climate, air quality and human health. Thermal power plants have had a large impact on anthropogenic emissions, and in recent years substantial efforts have been made to reduce fossil fuel use and increase power generation from renewable energy sources. While the climate benefits of this transition have been widely studied, the associated health impacts have received comparatively less attention and remain subject to considerable uncertainty. This study quantifies the health effects and related health costs resulting from possible reduced pollutant emissions from power plants due to increasing renewable energy generation in the European Union (EU). Using the energy system model REMix (Renewable Energy Mix), we model the European power system at high temporal and spatial resolution for 2019 (baseline) and three 2030 scenarios (optimistic, realistic, no coal). Based on reported data and EU emission standards, emissions of NOx, PM10, PM2.5, and SO2 from EU power plants are estimated for 2019 and the 2030 scenarios. Using these emission inventories, PM2.5 concentration levels across the EU are simulated with the air quality model Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with chemistry (WRF-Chem). Population exposure to PM2.5 is then used in concentration-response functions to estimate the excess mortality that could be avoided by 2030 under the three scenarios. Finally, health benefits are monetised by applying country-level values of a life year (VOLY), allowing the valuation of reduced health-related costs.