Optimizing Market Scenarios for Battery Electric Vehicles Through a Machine Learning-Based Manufacturer Agent

Kurzfassung

To meet climate goals, the automotive industry is transitioning to electromobility, reshaping vehicle model variants, market composition and therefore influencing purchasing decisions. To cover the full range of possible vehicle models for the German passenger vehicle market, a machine learning-based manufacturer agent was developed, incorporating a comprehensive technology database and historical vehicle data. Over 3000 new BEV models were generated and evaluated for possible year of market entry. Relevant models were integrated into the VECTOR21 vehicle technology scenario model to assess their market potential against competing drivetrains. The scenario results for Germany show that LFP vehicles can capture more than 18% overall market share in 2030, while Ni-rich cells remain competitive in long-range variants with up to 53% market potential by 2035. On the other hand, BEVs powered by sodium-ion batteries could reach up to 9% market potential by 2030, potentially exceeding 17% if cell prices fall below 50 EUR/kWh. However, sensitivity analysis reveals So-Ion market potential is highly sensitive to model availability, dropping to 6% or 2% in constrained scenarios, primarily replaced by LFP variants. These findings suggest that alongside cost reductions, sufficient model availability can also play a significant role in realizing the market potential of next-generation battery technologies.