Ski Areas and Snow Reliability Decline in the European Alps Under Increasing Global Warming—A Remote Sensing Perspective

Kurzfassung

The snowpack in the European Alps is declining due to global warming, which affects both the amount of seasonal snow and the timing of accumulation and melt. As the European Alps is the largest winter tourism destination in the world by revenue, this decline in natural snow poses an existential threat to the sector. Several smaller ski areas have closed permanently since 1980, and all Alpine regions face rising costs due to an increasing reliance on snowmaking. Professional winter sports are also affected, with several canceled events in recent years due to unsuitable snow conditions. In this study, we present the first remote sensing-based assessment of long-term snow reliability for winter tourism in the European Alps. Using snowline elevation (SLE) data derived from Landsat observations from 1985 to 2024, combined with OpenStreetMap ski infrastructure data and digital elevation models, we quantified the monthly snow coverage of ski area segments across 43 Alpine basins. Theil–Sen trends and Mann–Kendall significances were calculated for the full season and for three subseasons, with quality checks applied to guarantee sufficient data coverage. The results show predominantly negative trends across all seasons, with the strongest declines occurring in the late season. In this period, 97.8% of all downhill ski areas and 99.5% of the cross-country ski areas for which a trend was derived exhibited negative trends. For the full season, the corresponding shares were 94% for downhill ski areas and 99.2% for cross-country ski areas. In addition, areas located at the geographical edges of the European Alps showed more pronounced negative trends compared with the core regions. These findings align with previous studies on the subject and highlight the ongoing shortening of natural snow seasons and thus the increased challenges for the winter tourism sector in the Alps.