Climate Change may Promote Locust Outbreaks in Eurasia. Future of Dociostaurus Maroccanus by Ecological Modelling

Abstract

The Moroccan locust (Dociostaurus maroccanus) is one of the most economically significant locust species in the Caucasus and Central Asia. In the past, the Mediterranean region also experienced severe damage to crops and pastures, until widespread grassland conversion to cropland began in the second half of the 20th century. However, climate change, environmental shifts, land-use changes, cropland abandonment, and overgrazing are likely to alter the spatial distribution and outbreak patterns of this pest. Understanding potential changes and geographic shifts is essential for proactive pest management, including effective monitoring and control strategies. In this study, we apply Ecological Niche Modelling (ENM) using 12 machine learning algorithms, historical survey data covering the species’ full distribution range, and relevant abiotic variables to identify the most suitable areas for potential mass breeding during 1991–2020 and the near future (2021–2040), based on the “middle-of-the-road” Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2-4.5) scenario. Our results indicate significant regional shifts. Notably, breeding suitability is projected to increase in parts of Greece, Turkey, Armenia, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. In contrast, countries such as Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Spain are likely to experience a decline in optimal breeding areas. The forecast results support field observations of a geographical shift northward and toward higher altitudes. Additionally, higher temperatures in suitable areas suggest more drought-like conditions, which typically promote locust population explosions and outbreaks. If left unaddressed, such outbreaks can cause severe economic damage to affected regions.