Tree species–specific forest canopy cover loss in Germany (2018–2024): A national-scale remote sensing assessment

Abstract

Effective forest management and climate adaptation require a detailed understanding of tree species-specific disturbance dynamics. In recent years forest disturbances in Central Europe have intensified, driven by rising temperatures and recurring droughts. In Germany, drought and windthrow events since 2018 have triggered unprecedented Forest Canopy Cover Loss (FCCL). Here, we present the first national-scale assessment of FCCL for dominant tree species in Germany from 2018 to 2024, based on multi-temporal remote sensing data. We produced a dominant tree species map for 2016 by majority-voting on annual Sentinel-2 tree species classifications (2016–2024) and filtering with forest structure data. This yields a robust baseline for ten dominant species classes (F1-scores > 0.90 for nine pure-species classes). We quantified FCCL, derived from Sentinel-2 and Landsat time series at monthly intervals and 10 m resolution, by aggregating species-specific canopy loss pixels across different temporal (monthly, annual) and spatial (district, state, and national) scales. FCCL predominantly affected coniferous species: Spruce-dominated forests accounted for 4497 km² (51.3 % of total FCCL), corresponding to 18.6 % of initial spruce area, with peak FCCL in 2020–2021 and a distinct late-summer peak. Pine ranked second with 1893 km² (21.6 % of total FCCL and 7.4 % relative). Deciduous species such as beech and oak were less affected, with total FCCL below 300 km² each and relative declines of 1 %. Spatial hotspots of spruce FCCL were concentrated in central low mountain ranges. Our results provide a tree species-specific overview of forest loss dynamics in Germany, revealing tree species-dependent FCCL since 2018, thus supporting long-term forest management and adaptation to climate