Evaluating European Maritime Infrastructure Resilience through Constructive Simulation and Infrastructure Models

Abstract

The European maritime security is challenged by geopolitical tensions. This development necessitates robust protection strategies for critical infrastructure. Recent events, including suspected attacks on subsea cables and drone sightings near energy terminals, underscore the infrastructure vulnerability. We propose the application of constructive simulation models to evaluate the protection and resilience of maritime infrastructures. Constructive simulation offers an analytical tool for assessing the effectiveness of security measures. These simulations are today used in the defense field, e.g. for informing procurement decisions, optimizing ways on how well these systems are used for countering such threats, and for training practitioners. We see advantages in using this approach also in the civil security field. A simulation to replicate potential threat scenarios enables the evaluation of system capabilities and the development of effective countermeasures. This paper describes a variety of frameworks for the creation of constructive simulations. Each framework offers different advantages. A single simulation often proves insufficient in addressing the complexity of such scenarios. Thus, the use of co-simulations has become a prevalent approach. This concept requires diverse distribution standards, which in turn can be employed to establish a connection between potential simulations and infrastructure models. These standards are further described in this paper. Moreover, integrating detailed infrastructure models, exemplified by a recently developed offshore wind farm model, allows the simulation of infrastructure failures and the assessment of repair logistics. We discuss how this approach allows testing of infrastructure resilience against attacks, in terms of preventing and recovering from them.