Evaluating risk-based hazard corridors in air traffic controller decisions during space launch failures

Abstract

The increasing frequency and diversity of space launch activities challenge the safety and reliability of current air traffic management systems. In this study, we present a risk-based hazard corridor methodology for managing air traffic during space launch failures. Our method combines a debris propagation model with a hazard corridor construction approach that estimates the risk posed by debris to aircraft. We evaluated the constructed risk-based hazard corridors using high-fidelity human-in-the-loop simulations. In our experiments, air traffic controllers managed two strategies of hazard corridors. The dynamic hazard corridor updated the boundary in real-time while the static hazard corridor remained fixed by consolidating the dynamic boundaries over the entire activation period until the last piece of debris fell. The results show that controllers maintained safety separation across all scenarios, although their real-time workload increased significantly during hazard corridor activation. Overall, the controllers’ perceived workload and situation awareness remained stable, implying that the task demands were acceptable for all the experimental runs. Efficiency measure results indicate that the dynamic hazard corridor can reduce extra flight distance and delays, thus minimizing operational disruption caused by space launch failures. We also found that more experienced controllers tend to choose more cautious and conservative rerouting strategies. These findings offer practical guidance for improving resilience in air and space management integration. Furthermore, our study provides a basis for modeling air traffic controller behavior under emergency conditions in a way that is more in line with the real world patterns.