Evaluation and Optimization of Airborne In-Situ Measurement Strategies for Emission Estimation Using High-Resolution Large-Eddy Simulations of Greenhouse Gas Plumes

Abstract

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emission estimates from atmospheric observations are often limited by variability in the atmospheric boundary layer. In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to simulate passive tracer plumes from a continuous point source. The simulations provide a controlled environment for testing airborne in-situ measurement strategies. The focus is on the widely used mass-balance method, which is used to estimate source strength by integrating tracer concentrations and wind speed across vertical cross-sections downwind of the source. Different flight strategies are systematically tested for accuracy and precision of emission estimates. The results show that both meteorological variability and flight design can introduce significant bias into emission estimates. The findings highlight the importance of flight path configuration and the influence of weather variability. The results provide initial practical guidance for planning airborne GHG campaigns and contribute to a better understanding of the limitations of current emission estimation methods.