Regional scale biophysical assessment of the potential for sustainable intensification

Abstract

Smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) rely heavily on rain-fed agriculture, making them particularly vulnerable to climate shocks. Climate change is expected to disrupt traditional weather patterns, potentially introducing unprecedented climatic conditions in the region. This is further compounded by rapid population growth, which drives increasing food demand. As a result, enhancing agricultural productivity while preserving natural resources is critical, especially in the smallholder farming context where land degradation remains a major threat to food production. Sustainable intensification (SI) offers a viable solution by increasing agricultural output while reducing environmental impacts and improving resource-use efficiency. However, despite its undeniable importance, the potential for SI in northern Ghana remains largely unexplored. This study aims to: (i) assess the potential for sustainable intensification using different Integrated Soil Fertility Management (ISFM) options; (ii) evaluate these practices using key sustainability indicators; and (iii) conduct a risk assessment to evaluate the resilience of each practice under adverse climatic conditions. To achieve this, the SIMPLACE framework will be integrated with GIS tools to assess the suitability of ISFM practices, including organic and inorganic fertilizer application in sole cropping systems, as well as planting time, in northern Ghana. Key sustainability indicators will include the risk of leaching nitrogen, changes in soil organic carbon (SOC), final grain and biomass yield, and crop nitrogen uptake. Additionally, large ensemble climate datasets will support a robust risk assessment, ensuring that climate variability is adequately accounted for. This approach aims to minimize climate-related risks while enhancing crop production at a regional scale.