Macroeconomic Implications of a Hydrogen Economy - A Case Study for Germany

Kurzfassung

The global economy has faced three major macroeconomic crises induced by energy price shocks since 1945: the oil crises of 1973-74 and 1979-80, and the 2023 natural gas price spike following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. These events had significant economic impacts, particularly in Europe and Germany, where industrial sectors rely heavily on affordable energy. While it is well-established that energy price volatility affects economies dependent on affordable energy, the implications of such shocks in an all-renewable energy world remain unexplored. This study investigates the macroeconomic effects of a hydrogen-based energy system in Germany by developing an open-source input-output (IO) stock-flow consistent (SFC) macroeconomic model [1,2]. By transforming today’s input-output structure into a hydrogen-based economy and embedding it into an empirically founded SFC model we are able to examine future macroeconomic interdependencies in the production and output structure.