Quantifying the impact of fleet turnover on electric vehicle uptake in Europe

Abstract

To achieve the EU’s decarbonization targets of the passenger car fleet by 2050, additional measures are required that go beyond the current policy. This paper presents a modular approach to project the future composition of the EU’s passenger car fleet, focusing on battery electric vehicles (BEVs). The methodology combines a bottom-up transportation model to estimate new BEV registrations with a country-specific empirical model based on survival rates to estimate the future BEV fleet composition. Findings show a significant increase in vehicle lifespan across the EU since 2008, posing a barrier to rapid fleet electrification. Assuming constant 2021 survival rates until 2050, the European BEV stock share is projected to reach 85% by 2050. Restoring turnover rates to 2008 levels could increase this share to 92%, while continued increases in vehicle life could lower it to 78%. Significantly different levels of passenger car fleet electrification across EU Member States are observed.