The Impact of Reduced Railway Travel Time on Air Passenger Numbers: A Synthetic Control Group Approach

Abstract

This paper studies the modal shift from air to rail transport using a synthetic control method. In 2017, the opening of a new highspeed rail line reduced travel time from six to four hours between Berlin and Munich. According to theoretical priors, travel time is a key factor in choosing a mode of transportation. Therefore, the reduction in rail travel time should encourage some passengers to switch from air to rail. The results indicate that the new high-speed rail line does not significantly affect the total number of air passengers between Berlin and Munich. However, the proportion of passengers using Low-Cost Carriers increased significantly.