The application of microscopic activity based travel demand modelling in large scale simulations

Kurzfassung

The concept of microscopic modelling is intuitively understood because no artificial aggregate structures and abstract variables need to be introduced. Constraints can be incorporated in a direct, realistic way, and it is possible to analyse the results on different aggregate levels. Depending on the research or planning focus trips may be distinguished in terms of the quarter where they start or using socio-demographic or even life-style characteristics of the travellers. One of the challenges of microscopic modelling is to address all aspects of a trip like purpose, departure time, destination and mode. Often two or more of these aspects are interrelated, and the type of interdependeny is not the same for all trips. In this paper a modelling approach is presented where destination and mode choice are combined in one modelling step. A preliminary mode choice is used as a prerequisite to determine the travel times for possible destinations. The travel times control the destination choice using the model of intervening opportunities. Travel demand is simulated for a synthetic population of the City of Cologne. Variables like total distance per traveller, trip length distribution and mode choice distribution are considered, and the impact of the geographical structure of the area under investigation and varying travel times are discussed.