Forecasting Critical Raw Material Demand in Aviation: Insights on Data, Methods, Challenges and Key Results

Abstract

The aviation sector is becoming increasingly reliant on critical raw materials (CRMs). The sector´s heightened technical requirements, coupled with enhanced efficiency pressure render the utilisation of CRMs an indispensable necessity. The associated risks are frequently discussed in both industry and academic literature, particularly in the context of supply chain disruptions. The invasion of Ukraine by Russia serves as a recent example, highlighting the potential impact e.g. of geopolitical events on the sector and its complicated supply chains. While immediate mitigation strategies are discussed and implemented, there is limited discourse on mediumand long-term challenges regarding CRMs in aviation. To facilitate such a discussion, firstly a comprehensive database and forecasting is required. This paper, therefore, aims to present different data sources and forecasting approaches in the aviation sector.