On Selection Of Relevant Safety And Security Scenarios For Detailed Modelling

Abstract

Different methods exist to develop scenarios within the safety and security domain such as the morphological scenario analysis, event tree and Delphi method. In most cases, after applying these methods, a long list of possible scenarios exists. The scenario development is in most cases only the first step where the simulations, assessments or other applications take place depending on the use case. Due to the fact that there is not enough computing power or because of the longer time to set up the simulation model, often most of these scenarios cannot be further studied. Further, vague or not existing data basis can also be a reason that limits the modelling capabilities. Motivated by the above, this paper presents an approach to select the suitable scenarios for further modelling. The authors focus on the relevant safety and security scenarios for an offshore wind cluster. Further, for these scenarios the authors also propose a list of possible criteria for the selection of possible scenarios.