Preliminary lessons from current conflicts about threats on critical maritime infrastructure by unmanned systems

Abstract

The research will look at the latest developments in the field of unmanned maritime systems that have been used in recent conflicts. For example, unmanned maritime systems have been successfully used by the Ukrainian armed forces since 2022 to attack infrastructure and ships in the Black Sea. Hamas and Houthis have also used maritime surface vessels and underwater vehicles to gain operational, tactical and strategic advantages. What these systems have in common is that, compared to the established commercially available systems, they have short development periods and are rather crudely designed.

Based on open sources, relevant design criteria will be identified in this research task that contribute to the success but also to the failure of these systems. Based on scenarios in which these systems can be used, some preliminary lessons will be drawn to predict the impact of a potential future increased use of such platforms. These Scenarios will focus on certain maritime infrastructures, including those located underwater, which fulfill critical functions for allied nations. An expected outcome of the research is the identification of new threat vectors that are worth being mitigated to ensure the resilience of our societies.